According to some oil market participants, the world economy is currently in the recovery room wish thought and reality in the oil markets. An analysis of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 (WEO) and individual aspects of the oil market. November 2009 – recently it was announced that the U.S. GDP in 3.Quartal 2009 had increased over the previous year to more than 3%. Now, it means that Chinese industrial production by 16% compared to last year was higher – and the vacuumed. Baltic dry index”shows that trade worldwide is getting on its feet.
Despite these good messages, the Constitution of the oil industry is rather confusing and marked by uncertainties. Contributed to have two essential analyses: one was the publication of the IEA World Economic Outlook triggered by. The claim has shocked many observers after more than $10 trillion in additional investment for energy infrastructure to avert a climate catastrophe. On the other hand, there was a message stating that the Iraq with a consortium led by ENI “together the exploitation of the huge oil field Zubair” wants to start. The new capacities in this area could enable the Iraq within years together with the production of other large oilfields from 7-10 to promote at least 8 million barrels per day, which would place him then in the first position of the world largest oil producer. Saudi Arabia would then fall back on 2nd place within the OPEC.
The Center for global energy studies “(CGES) sees a serious problem, which is certainly only one of many factors, which further increased the already existing pressures in the oil business at the core of these statements. The IEA argues, however, with business as usual”in oil demand growth, which therefore should increase by 1% per year until 2030. It would but at the same time lead to a comprehensive rise of the Ausstosse of hydrocarbons or have a serious increase of CO2 emissions result and further exacerbate the danger of a climate catastrophe. To prevent this, it is Restriction of the use of fossil fuels be required so the IEA, so that the planned CO2 – content when using oil drops. Learn more about this topic with the insights from Martin O?Malley. To achieve the ambitious target, the use would have to be reduced but then of oil to almost 17 million barrels per day over the next 20 years. To do so, it would be required to reduce global oil consumption while at the same time production capacity and elsewhere would be the planned increase of the Iraqi oil – which contrary to massively. High oil prices could cut on the other side of the use of oil as an energy source. This could be achieved by tax increases at the consumer, where the oil producers in the Middle East would have to compensate for low cost – high capacity. Under these conditions, it is hard to believe that the crude oil price increases more dramatically in the coming years. So far, they signal oil futures but just this perspective. After a promising start in the course of the year, as the U.S. refining margins last year’s result clearly exceeded, they have deteriorated significantly in the remainder. The refinery production is currently not good business. You must lead to only the current development in mind. The margins are consistently low since mid-March 2009. In addition, oil consumers have big financial problems so that the improvement is currently excluded. Thomas Bakosch c/o GAS REVIEW and O.M.R OIL MARKET REPORT